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Journal of General Internal Medicine: First Opioid Prescription and Subsequent High-Risk Opiod Use, a National Survey of Privately Insured and Medicare Advantage Adults

BACKGROUND: National guidelines make recommendations regarding the initial opioid prescriptions, but most of the supporting evidence is from the initial episode of care, not the first prescription.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between features of the first opioid prescription and high-risk opioid use in the 18 months following the first prescription.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using data from a large commercial insurance claims database for 2011–2014 to identify individuals with no recent use of opioids and follow them for 18 months after the first opioid prescription.

PARTICIPANTS: Privately insured patients aged 18–64 and Medicare Advantage patients aged 65 or older who filled a first opioid prescription between 07/01/2011 and 06/30/2013.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: High-risk opioid use was measured by having (1) opioid prescriptions overlapping for 7 days or more, (2) opioid and benzodiazepine prescriptions overlapping for 7 days or more, (3) three or more prescribers of opioids, and (4) a daily dosage exceeding 120 morphinemilligram equivalents, in each of the six quarters following the first prescription.

KEY RESULTS: All three features of the first prescription were strongly associated with high-risk use. For example, among privately insured patients, receiving a long- (vs. short-) acting first opioid was associated with a 16.9-percentage- point increase (95% CI, 14.3–19.5), a daily MME of 50 ormore (vs. less than 30) was associated with a 12.5- percentage-point increase (95% CI, 12.1–12.9), and a supply exceeding 7 days (vs. 3 or fewer days) was associated with a 4.8-percentage-point increase (95% CI, 4.5–5.2), in the probability of having a daily dosage of 120 MMEs or more in the long term, compared to a sample mean of 4.2%. Results for the Medicare Advantage patients were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Long-acting formulation, high daily dosage, and longer duration of the first opioid prescription were each associated with increased high-risk use of opioids in the long term.
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